Reno Area Technical Forecast Discussion
302FXUS65 KREV 131908AFDREVArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Reno NV1208 PM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024.SYNOPSIS...* Plan on typical late day breezes through the end of the work week with localized fire weather concerns.* Cooler temperatures persist this week along with some low chances (8-10%) for showers along the OR border Wednesday-Thursday.* More widespread, stronger winds may kick up this weekend as a stronger low approaches the West coast.&&.DISCUSSION...Temperatures are running about 5 to 8 degrees cooler regionwidetoday which is a welcome reprieve from the hotter mid-August highs!These cooler conditions will continue with valley temperatures inthe mid-80s to low-90s, 70s in the Sierra valleys, and 60s in thehigher elevations. One caution will be that some overnight lows inSierra valley communities may drop into the 30s with pockets offreezing temperatures possible (15-25% chance this weekend). Therewill still be smoke/haze in the vicinity through the week withongoing fires nearby. Generally, HRRR simulations keep much of thesmoke aloft aka "up high" to where we shouldn`t see much of adegradation in air quality in the valley areas.Ensemble cluster analysis continues to highlight a general troughjust off the PacNW and West coast through the upcoming week. Thiswill keep the temperatures cooler, but also promote some enhancedbreezes here and there through the forecast. Primarily typicalbreezes are forecast each day with west to southwest winds 10-20mph and gusts up to 30 mph. The stronger wind days appear to betabled until the weekend as a closed low approaches the WestCoast. While we may experience short duration, localized criticalfire conditions through the week, the period to watch will be overthe weekend with the stronger upper level support andstrengthening surface pressure gradients. The increasing south-southwest flow projected across the Sierra and western Nevada forSat-Sun could result in impacts to aviation, lake recreation, andfire weather.Blended guidance continues to highlight a 10-30% chance ofshowers and a few thunderstorms for the far northern portions ofthe region Wednesday evening through Thursday evening as an upperlevel trough swings through the Pac NW. For now, the bestinstability and shear associated with the trough passage willremain north into OR, but still can`t rule out a handful ofshowers and storms for far northern Washoe and Lassen counties,including the Surprise Valley.-Edan&&.AVIATION...VFR conditions continue through the period. Main hazard continuesto be gusty winds. West to southwest winds with speeds 10-15 ktsand gusts to around 25 kts return from 18-04Z. LLWS and turbulenceis still likely in areas along and adjacent the Sierra this morning,especially south of Lake Tahoe towards KMMH through 15Z.Slantwise visibility may be slightly degraded later this afternoondue to smoke/haze from the Gold complex near Verdi/Mogul, but latestsimulations are fairly sparse with the smoke output.-Crespo/Edan&&.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NV...None.CA...None.&&$$
